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Using Wikipedia to predict epidemics

Wikipedia could even save the world from a deadly pandemic in the near future. According to some scientists in the US, it’s possible to predict outbreaks of diseases around the world by monitoring the online encyclopedias page views. This is because, say the experts, people start searching for information related to the disease on Wikipedia before contacting a doctor. The researchers reached this conclusion after studying the evolution of flu viruses in the US, Poland, Japan and Thailand, as well as dengue in Brazil and Thailand and tuberculosis in China. In almost all of these cases they were able to predict the outbreaks of the diseases at least 28 days in advance. This discovery, if confirmed by further experiments, could lead to the creation of a system to forecast global illness, based on open data that will improve the way in which we respond to outbreaks.

Forecasting system

Lead researcher Dr Sara Del Valle said: “A global disease-forecasting system will change the way we respond to epidemics. “In the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and plan for the future based on today’s forecast. “The goal of this research is to build an operational disease monitoring and forecasting system with open data and open source code. “This paper shows we can achieve that goal.” But it is not clear from the present study whether the model will be useable in countries where access to the internet is poor.

‘Compelling’ Dr Heidi Larson, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the Wikipedia research data was “compelling” but she would be “wary” about using it as a tool for predicting outbreaks of all disease. She said that people needed to have internet access, be literate, and be familiar with Wikipedia and with the disease itself. Dr Larson added: “There are different things that drive people to Wikipedia, sometimes a new piece of research can drive people to go online.” While online trends could provide valuable signals about disease, questions remained as to what extent you used the data to inform policy or for intervention, she added. “I’m not sure how much Wikipedia is used in Africa,” she said. “For issues like Ebola, I don’t think people at the beginning of the outbreak in West Africa would have [been searching], because they wouldn’t have had it [Ebola] before.”

http://www.west-info.eu/using-wikipedia-to-predict-epidemics/